Novorizontino’s chances of earning direct promotion to Brazil’s Série A have climbed to 94.16% after a 2-1 win over Operário-PR and a draw between Vila Nova and Juventude. The club leads Série B by two points with 67 points, and one victory in its final two games would guarantee at least one of the direct promotion spots, according to the projections cited after the 36th round.
The draw at Vila Nova’s Oba stadium helped Juventude as well. Vila Nova took the lead twice, but the visitors from Caxias do Sul came back to level the score. Juventude’s estimated chance of direct promotion rose from 57.05% to 66.93%, while Vila Nova’s fell from 43.02% to 24.16% after going three matches without a win.
The next round brings difficult tests for the leading sides. Novorizontino face Criciúma, who beat Ponte Preta 2-0, while Vila Nova meet Fortaleza, who drew with Atlético-GO. The top two teams in Série B are promoted directly. Clubs finishing third to sixth enter a two-legged playoff for the other two promotion places.
The post-round projections give Novorizontino a 94.16% chance of direct promotion, followed by Juventude at 66.93%, Vila Nova at 24.16%, Criciúma at 8.61% and Fortaleza at 6.14%. Those five teams are also each certain to finish in the top six, according to the model.
Novorizontino also lead the title projections, with a 78.74% chance of winning the championship. Juventude are next at 14.86%, followed by Vila Nova at 3.23%, Criciúma at 2.43% and Fortaleza at 0.74%.
The figures were produced in partnership with economist Bruno Imaizumi using 10,000 simulations for each remaining match. The projections are recalculated after each round using updated team performances and results.
Sources: Globo Esporte.