With roughly a quarter of the 2026-27 club season complete, league tables remain an incomplete guide to team performance. In the Premier League and Bundesliga, 14 teams are within six points of the top four, while 13 are similarly close in Ligue 1. In LaLiga, 14 teams are within six points of the relegation zone.
Expected goals (xG) offers another way to assess those early standings. The metric measures the quality and quantity of chances created and allowed, giving a broader indication of performance than goals alone. Comparing expected results with actual points separates teams that have been good and fortunate from those whose results have not reflected their underlying play.
Lazio have combined strong performances with unusually favorable results. They have dropped only two points in nine Serie A matches and are level with Inter at the top of the table, despite finishing seventh or lower in each of the previous three seasons. Lazio have scored 22 goals from 15.5 xG, with Tijjani Noslin, Gustav Isaksen and Kenneth Taylor producing nine goals from 3.9 xG. Their attacking efficiency is unlikely to continue at the same level.
Atletico Madrid are again outperforming their expected numbers under Diego Simeone. Over the past 12 full seasons, their goal difference has exceeded their xG difference 11 times. This season, Jan Oblak remains a major factor in goal, while Álex Baena has taken on a prominent role as a finishing overachiever. Atletico have also taken seven points from four matches in which their xG difference was negative.
Manchester City have also benefited from results that exceed their chance profile. Their clearest example was a 5-3 victory over Sunderland despite generating 2.8 xG and allowing 3.6. Erling Haaland has remained highly efficient, scoring nine goals from chances worth 6.1 xG, while City’s defense has been less dominant by underlying measures than their results suggest.
Borussia Dortmund have produced a positive xG difference in all seven Bundesliga matches, but their defense has conceded only four goals from chances worth 7.3 xG. Goalkeeper Gregor Kobel has contributed, although opponents have also missed opportunities. Como, meanwhile, have reached fourth in Serie A and made an impressive Champions League start, but they have still posted a negative xG difference in four of their nine league matches. Their recent performances, however, suggest they may be moving from fortunate to genuinely strong.
Several teams have created strong chances but received too little from them. Nottingham Forest are sixth in Premier League xG created, second in xG allowed and fifth in overall xG difference, yet they sit 18th in the table. They have scored six goals from 13.4 xG and have won only one of the six matches in which they produced a positive xG difference.
Brest are 13th in Ligue 1 despite ranking second in the league for xG difference. They have produced an xG advantage of at least 1.9 in four matches but won only one of them. Villarreal are third in LaLiga for xG difference but 10th in the table, with missed chances contributing to dropped points against Atletico Madrid, Elche and Alaves.
Bournemouth have led more Premier League matches than all but Manchester City, Arsenal and Brentford, but they have converted six leads into only two wins. They rank third in xG difference and have been outscored 4-0 from the 80th minute onward. Bayern Munich have also been denied by finishing and results. They drew 0-0 at Schalke despite a 1.7 xG advantage and 2-2 at Augsburg despite a 2.5 advantage. Harry Kane has four league goals from 5.2 xG, while Serge Gnabry has scored once from 2.2 xG.
Among teams with poor underlying numbers and disappointing results, Venezia stand out as an unlucky side. They have only three points from eight Serie A matches, but have scored six goals from 14.5 xG. Their forwards John Yeboah, Albion Rrahmani and Lion Lauberbach have combined for one goal from 5.1 xG. Venezia have posted a positive xG difference in four of nine matches and rank 14th overall in that measure.
Borussia Mönchengladbach ended a six-match losing run by beating Stuttgart 3-2. Their opening defeats included both poor performances and unlucky results, such as 4-3 losses to Elversberg and Mainz despite a combined xG advantage of 0.5. New manager Alexander Blessin has improved the defense, while Joe Scally and 17-year-old Wael Mohya each scored and assisted against Stuttgart.
Valencia have six points from 10 matches after converting 10.8 xG into seven goals. They took only two points from matches against Real Betis, Celta Vigo and Athletic Club despite attempting 40 shots worth 3.3 xG. Troyes have also been inefficient, scoring five goals from 9.7 xG and conceding 16 from 13.2 xG.
Sunderland, who finished seventh in the Premier League last season despite ranking 18th in xG difference, have improved to 15th in that category this campaign. They have created a positive xG difference in four of eight matches but won only once. Brian Brobbey is the only player with more than two goals, and Sunderland have not scored in a league match since Sept. 20.
Frosinone represent the clearest example of a team collecting more points than its underlying performance suggests. They are sixth in points per game and ahead of Juventus, but rank 18th in xG difference. They have scored 17 goals from 13.1 xG while allowing 13 from 19.5, making their position difficult to sustain without continued favorable results.
The early standings therefore offer only a partial picture. Teams such as Bayern Munich, Nottingham Forest and Villarreal have the chance-creation numbers to improve, while Lazio, Manchester City and Frosinone may need to maintain unusually efficient finishing or defending to preserve their current positions.
Sources: ESPN Soccer.