The race for the Campeonato Brasileiro title has shifted dramatically in the 33rd round. A combination of results saw Palmeiras draw 0-0 against Santos at Vila Belmiro while Flamengo secured a commanding 4-1 victory over Vasco at the Nilton Santos stadium. These outcomes have handed the Rio-based club a three-point lead, positioning them to eye the trophy as the competition nears its conclusion.
This scenario closely mirrors events from the previous year. During the same round last season, Palmeiras lost to Santos while Flamengo opened a three-point gap, eventually winning the championship with that exact margin. The historical parallel underscores the difficult situation now facing Palmeiras. With only five rounds remaining, the green-and-white team requires at least two more wins than Flamengo to overtake them, given they currently have two fewer victories and an inferior goal difference of six goals.
Palmeiras faces a challenging schedule ahead, with three home matches remaining against Grêmio, Chapecoense, and Athletico. Their only immediate relief is the direct head-to-head clash scheduled for the 36th round on November 22. This fixture comes just a week before Abel Ferreira's side decides the Copa Libertadores final against Estudiantes. Prior to that, Palmeiras must navigate two Copa do Brasil semifinal legs against Vasco, with a potential final occurring three days after the Brasileirão concludes.
While Palmeiras is renowned for handling pressure, Flamengo enjoys a significant advantage in preparation by having been eliminated from both parallel tournaments. This allows the talented but sometimes distracted side to focus entirely on the league title. In terms of recent form, both teams show similarities despite opposing styles, with each winning six of their last ten matches. However, Flamengo boasts a superior unbeaten run of 14 games compared to Palmeiras in the same period.
Even when not playing at their peak, Flamengo has demonstrated an ability to secure results, as seen in parts of their match against Vasco. Given these factors and the historical precedent from this exact moment last year, the championship appears increasingly likely to lean toward Flamengo.
Sources: Globo Esporte.